What changed while the Nasdaq cash market was closed?
Graham measures one pre-open information signal: the movement in Nasdaq-100 futures from the prior US cash-market close to 09:15 New York time. The observation is recorded before the 09:30 cash open.
A fixed window and a locked signal.
The model does not search across the morning for the most convenient futures move. The two endpoints are fixed in advance.
Why observe futures?
Nasdaq-100 futures trade while the US cash market is closed. Their pre-market movement can therefore contain information arriving overnight before the Nasdaq Composite itself opens. Graham uses that movement as a predictor, not as the closing-level forecast itself.
Latest locked observation.
Graham Says publishes the derived pre-market return used by the model. Raw vendor bars and endpoint prices remain private.
The information set, recorded over time.
Each point below is the pre-open futures movement that was available when that day's forecast was created.
| Date | Window | NQ move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| No prospective observations published yet. | |||
Record first, evaluate later.
Read the fixed 16:00 → 09:15 futures window.
Write the target-date signal to the prospective log.
Pass the signal through the frozen model.
Publish before the US cash session opens.
The realised close remains unknown.